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Veld- of oesgewasse

mielies

Absa bank het al die afgelope 100 jaar in landbou belê en sien uit na die volgende 100 jaar saam met ons boere. Bekende name in die landboubedryf gaan verskillende vooruitsigte soos die ekonomie, die weer, gewasse, groente, vee ens vir 2017 bespreek. Hou ons webblad dop om almal te lees.

  • Maize

By Wessel Lemmer and Julie Hayward- Wessel.Lemmer@absa.co.za

International trends

Production

The main maize-producing countries are the US, followed by China, Brazil and the EU. Global maize production in 2016/17 is expected to be near 1 023 million tonnes, which is 7% higher than in 2015/16. The anticipated increase in maize production in the US and Europe is expected to compensate for the lower maize production in Asia, Africa and South America. The consumption of maize is anticipated to increase as a result of the increased use of maize for feed in China and in the EU. The global ending stocks are also expected to move sideways as a result of the drawdown in China, offsetting the build-up of maize ending stocks in the US.

Trade

In December 2015, Argentina removed their 20% export tariff on maize, which supported the volumes traded on the global market; this was done as their production is expected to increase in the next season. In February 2016 Russia banned the importation of maize from the US following phytosanitary safety concerns and political decisions. This then put pressure on the surplus that the US was experiencing. In April 2016 Brazil removed their import tariff on maize. In October 2016 the maize ending stocks on the global market were at 219,5 million tonnes compared to 210 million tonnes the previous year. Global exports in 2016/17 are expected to increase by 2% to 52 million tonnes from 2015/16, with South East Asia and the EU remaining the main import destinations. South America is contributing to the increase in trade owing to their increased exports. China recently implemented new policy changes, which led to maize being excluded from the state procurement and stockholding programmes. This, in turn, led to lower domestic prices. The new policy changes are expected to improve the use of maize in feed at the expense of sorghum and barley.

Prices

In January to March 2016 maize prices reached the lowest level of $159,90/t since 2010 as a result of ample global supplies, low crude oil prices and Argentina’s removal of their taxes and licensing requirements. The ample supply of feed-quality wheat also put pressure on the price of maize. Towards the middle of 2016 the global demand for maize increased and weather concerns in Argentina and Brazil supported prices. The average price of $171/t in the second quarter of 2016 is higher than in 2015 when the average price reached $169,80/t. It is significantly lower than the average price of $259/t reached in 2013. Argentina’s currency declined against the US dollar in 2016, which improved the country’s competitiveness on the global maize market.

Outlook

Moving into 2017, maize prices are expected to increase slightly from an average of $165/t to $170/t in 2017. Global maize production is expected to increase in 2016/17 from the previous year, owing to the anticipated larger crops from South Africa, Argentina and Brazil. Over the forecast period, the production of maize is expected to increase mainly because of improved yields and not necessarily because of additional hectares planted.

Domestic trends

Production

Over the past two seasons (2014/5 and 2015/16) South Africa has been experiencing one of the worst droughts in more than two decades. The severely dry conditions resulted in the total production of maize being lower than the average annual maize yield of 12 million tonnes. In general, the main factors resulting in improved maize yields over time are precision farming, mechanisation and improved seed varieties. However, the Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) put the total maize production for the 2014/15 marketing season at 9 955 000 tonnes. The total maize production estimate for the 2015/16 season is 7 160 925 tonnes. In 2016 the serious effects of El Niño started to abate and most regions are expected to return gradually to a more normal production climate.

Trade

Under normal circumstances, South Africa is a net exporting country of maize. South Africa is uniquely situated to be one of the main maize suppliers to Southern Africa, followed by Zambia and Uganda. In Zambia the effects of El Niño were not as severe as in the other neighbouring countries. Their maize production growth is expected to increase in the coming years, with the cost of input being the main limiting factor to production. In Uganda, maize is harvested at various times of the year starting in June and ending in October. In 2015/16 Uganda is also expected to have a poor harvest as a result of dire weather conditions. In the near future, however, their maize production and consumption is expected to increase by around 3,3%. Zimbabwe is expected to remain a net importing country as their maize production estimates have decreased by 54% to 700 000 tonnes for 2015/16. At present the main challenges in Zimbabwe are infrastructure, financing, precision farming and a lag in economic growth.

In Tanzania, maize production is expected to decline for the second year in the 2015/16 marketing season as a result of erratic and delayed rains at the end of 2015. In 2013/14 South Africa had a bumper maize crop, which supplemented the shortage in 2014/15 when South Africa suffered from the first wave of the effects of El Niño. However, in 2015/16 there was very little carryover stock, which required an increase in the imports of maize and caused maize prices to surpass those of import parity prices. In 2015/16 South Africa imported 100 803 tonnes of white maize and 1 862 807 tonnes of yellow maize and in the 2016/17 marketing season South Africa is anticipated to import 1 000 000 tonnes of white maize and 2 300 000 tonnes of yellow maize. In 2015/16 South Africa imported 100 803 tonnes of white maize, of which 51 040 tonnes came from Mexico, 28 238 tonnes from the US and 21 525 tonnes from Zambia. In 2015/16 South Africa imported 1 862 807 tonnes of yellow maize, of which 1 120 281 tonnes came from Argentina, 502 147 tonnes from Brazil, 212 840 tonnes from Paraguay and 27 539 tonnes from the Ukraine.

Prices

In 2015/16 domestic maize prices were at an all-time high as a result of lower production and the weaker South African rand. The higher prices supported those producers who were able to plant. The overall value of maize did not drop that much as the prices for maize compensated for the lower production. A strong rand improved economic conditions.

Outlook

With the anticipation of El Niño dissipating in the 2017/18 marketing season, white maize prices are expected to return to price levels near import parity. With the intentions to plant 2,46 million ha, total production is expected to recover to more favourable levels forcommercial use. The weaker rand will support the export of about 900 000 tonnes of maize to Southern African countries, especially Zimbabwe, which is anticipated to remain a net importing country moving into 2017/18. More importantly, South Africa will need to import 1,2 million tonnes of yellow maize to meet the feed demand.

  • Sugar cane

By  Karabo Takadi and  Rikasha Ramburan – Karabo.Takadi@absa.co.za

International trends

Production

Global sugar consumption is expected to outperform production from 2015/16. Production is expected to decline by 7% to 164,9 million tonnes, while consumption is expected to increase by 1% to 171,7 million tonnes. This is on the back of declines in production in the main producing regions of Brazil, China, India, the EU and Thailand. Consumption is expected to continue to outstrip production in 2016/17. Brazil is the largest world sugar producer but its total output for 2015/16 is expected to decline by 4%to 34,6 million tonnes, as the tightening of credit conditions associated with the weaker Brazilian economy will impact sugar production negatively. Reduced plantings in 2015 and dry conditions due to El Niño weather have reduced production in 2016. However, there is a higher demand for sugar in Brazil as a higher percentage of sugar cane is converted to ethanol.

Brazil is expected to see improvement in production in 2016/17. In China, production declines of 23% were recorded in 2015/16 − high producer costs and lower cane prices led to decreases in the area planted. These costs encouraged producers to switch to higher-value crops such as tobacco and bananas. The strong decline in production in China means that there will be an increased import demand, which will impact the global sugar trade. For 2016/17, sugar production in China is expected to improve as a result of more areas planted and better cane prices. In India, expected decreases in output of 9% are due to lower yields. For 2016/17, sugar production is expected to decline as drought conditions shrink acreage in the key growing regions of Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh. India levied a 20% duty on sugar exports to prevent further increases in local prices because of the reduced supplies. The government has also put some restrictions on how much sugar the largest industrial users are allowed to keep. India is the world’s largest consumer and second-largest producer of sugar. Thailand recorded a 10% decline in sugar production due to dry conditions associated with El Niño weather. Should La Niña weather conditions bring moisture to the cane fields, production will improve in 2016/17. Production in the EU in 2015/16 is expected to decline due to a decline in areas under beet, coupled with average beet yields in some countries.

Prices

The beginning of 2015 saw international sugar prices beginning to decline. Prices only began to improve in August 2015. The price decreases were in line with steady declines in the market since 2011, and were the result of growth in production over the past four years, which resulted in increases in the global sugar inventories to near record levels. However, January 2016 again saw world raw prices decline until they hit a low point in mid-February. Then, in March, prices started recovering from the low levels seen in February. Prices continued strengthening and increased by 28% between March and July as a result of the tightening of the global supplies in relation to demand.

Outlook

As the market moves further into deficit in 2016, potential support to sugar prices could encourage new investment in sugar production around the world. This, together with the fact that La Niña could boost the outlook for some sugar crops, could lead to improved production in 2016/17. Weather influences will remain key in major growing regions.

Domestic trends

Production

Drought conditions have given the South African sugar cane industry a severe knock. Production levels have dropped by approximately 27% since 2013. Production estimates for the 2016/17 season indicate a 2% drop in national cane production compared to 2015/16. This is attributed to significant declines in cane production in the irrigated and dryland areas from the 2013/14 season to the present. During the current season, irrigated areas are expected to produce approximately 30% less than that achieved in the 2015/16 season. This is mostly due to low dam levels and water restrictions hampering irrigation, coupled with the effect of a very hot, dry summer. The figures used for the 2016/17 season are based on June estimates. However, dryland areas are expected to give better yields. These areas did receive a higher rainfall in the period from May 2015 to April 2016 than in the period May 2014 to April 2015. The dryland areas are expected to perform better in the coming season when compared to the irrigated areas. This is due to the larger area of carry-over cane from the 2015/16 season, as well as the good rains received in the Midlands and the coastal areas in the summer months. Overall, total cane production is expected to decrease by approximately 2% from that achieved in the 2015/16 season.

Prices

The industry is expected to recover to previous production levels over the next four seasons. Diversification is a focus area for the industry. A large number of growers are expanding into macadamia and tea tree production along the coast. However, the increase received in the price of cane and the higher tonnage varieties being planted at present has regained growers’ confidence in the long-term sustainability of the sugar cane industry. South African sugar consumption might be under slight pressure due to lower economic growth, which is forecast at 0% for the remainder of 2016. The impact of high food inflation on sugar prices and consumer demand may also affect the demand for sugar as consumers are under pressure. The South African Customs Union (SACU) is the primary market for the South African sugar industry. That region is also expected to see lower economic growth. The lower production estimates also means the industry could meet the local market demand for sugar comfortably, although there will be very little available for export purposes. South Africa only exports surplus sugar after meeting the needs of the domestic market. If there is any further deterioration in production, the industry will have to import sugar in order to build a buffer. The August RV (recoverable value) price for the 2016/17 season has been set at R5 042/t. This indicates a 32% increase from a year ago and is 26,7% higher than the 2015/16 closing price. The 2015/16 season closed with a final price of R3 979/t RV, which represents a 15% increase in the final price of the 2014/15 season. This higher price has provided much-needed financial relief to growers. The price increase is due to the lower production estimates.

Outlook

The sugar industry is expecting a further decline in production in the 2016/17 season. The increase in producer price will help growers keep up their replanting and spraying programmes later in the year. La Niña conditions are also possible in spring and summer, which could bode well for the next planting season. The industry is expected to consolidate over the next few years and to recover to previous production levels over the next four seasons. Dryland areas are expected to perform better than irrigated areas in the coming season. Growers in the irrigated areas will be requiring assistance in order to keep up replanting programmes if the rains do come. The price increase has provided much-needed relief for growers.

  • Wheat

By  Wessel Lemmer and  Julie Hayward – Wessel.Lemmer@absa.co.za

International trends

Production

Global wheat production was at a record high in 2015. In 2016 wheat production is expected to be slightly lower than in 2015 and will exceed consumption for the fourth consecutive year. The lower production is a result of fewer plantings in Europe and the US and dry conditions in Africa. Argentina, Canada and Russia have increased their production, which has partly offset the considerable production cuts by the EU, Morocco, Turkey, and the Ukraine. The US is expected to produce 2,6% less wheat at 54,4 million tonnes in 2016/17 as a result of lower plantings. The consumption of wheat is expected to move slightly up as the consumption of wheat for food offsets the lower use of feed wheat. In the July 2016/June 2017 marketing season global stocks are expected to remain at an all-time high.

Trade

The global trade in wheat has slowed over the past year and there has been increased competition for market share, which in turn has put pressure on wheat prices. The global wheat trade for the marketing season is expected to be 0,3% higher at 155 million tonnes than in the 2015/16 marketing year but is still 1,5 million tonnes short of the 2013/14 record level. The increase is mainly due to increased trade in China and North Africa. The EU is expected to remain the largest wheat exporter for the fourth consecutive year. Global trade is expected to remain high but slightly lower than in 2015, which is mainly a consequence of India increasing their imports as a result of low global prices and their faltering domestic procurement. India placed a 25% tax on wheat imports in the first half of 2016, which has supported local prices and production. Japan announced that, until the end of 2016, they would sell imported wheat to their domestic millers at an average price of US$468/t, which is 7,1% lower than in the previous six months. In South America, Brazil is the region’s largest importer of wheat. Their 2016/17 imports are estimated to be 200 000 tonnes lower year on year at 6,5 million tonnes as a result of the anticipated small increase in domestic production.

Argentina is expected to export a four-year high of 8 million tonnes in 2016/17 as a result of their weak peso, higher domestic production and the removal of their 23% export tax. The exports of wheat from the US are expected to be 24,5 million tonnes in 2016/17, which is 4 million tonnes higher year on year. Russia is expected to export slightly less wheat year on year at 22,5 million tonnes, which puts them third after the US and the EU, followed closely by Canada and Australia. In April 2016 Canada extended their transportation rule that was implemented in 2014 in order to improve the movement of grain by rail. At the end of 2015 China signed food safety protocols with Russia regarding wheat, among other commodities. Africa’s import of wheat in 2016/17 is expected to be 2,9% higher year on year at 47,7 million tonnes. Morocco decreased their import tariff on soft wheat gradually from 75% to 30% in order to ensure sufficient market supply. However, Morocco has continued and will continue to maintain their 2,5% duty on durum wheat. For the 2016/17 marketing season Morocco is expected to import an all-time high of 5 million tonnes as a result of prevailing drought conditions. In 2016 Egypt lowered their moisture specifications of imported wheat from 13,5% to 13% and the government proceeded to allocate US$224 million for purchasing wheat from farmers that was harvested in the 2016 heat.

Price

Wheat prices trended sideways on average in the first half of 2016. However, prices in 2016 were lower than in 2015. The strong US dollar applied pressure on wheat prices. Developments in the soybean and maize market have supported the occasional increase in wheat prices. Prices are expected to remain low moving into 2016/17.

Domestic trends

Production

South Africa’s wheat industry has been declared an industry in distress. The main role players in South Africa are collaborating in order to improve the domestic wheat market. A factor that has been implemented in the wheat industry is the import tariff. The main wheat-producing regions in South Africa are the Western Cape with 51% of the wheat produced, followed by the Northern Cape with 16% and the Free State with 14%.

Over the years the amount of wheat planted in the Free State has declined considerably. In the 2015/16 marketing season 482 150 ha of wheat was planted, which is 1,2% more than in the 2014/15 marketing season. The final wheat crop in 2015/16 reached 1 440 000 tonnes, which is 21,5% less than in the 2014/15 season. The producer deliveries reported by the South African Grain Information Service (Sagis) from October 2015 to March 2016 reached 1 374 169 tonnes, which is 22% lower year on year. The estimated further deliveries from April 2016 to September 2016 are estimated to be 31 931 tonnes, which is 30% lower year on year and the retentions for farm use are estimated to be 33 900 tonnes, which is 3% lower year on year. The total demand for wheat in South Africa over the 2015/16 season was 3 221 600 tonnes, which is 6,7% less than in 2014/15. The total supply for wheat in South Africa over the 2015/16 season was 3 862 923 tonnes, which is 4,5% less than 2014/15.

Trade

South Africa is a net importer of wheat. The import tariff for the most of 2016 was R1 224,3/t. The revised wheat tariff of R1 591,40/t was published on 22 August 2016 in the Government Gazette. The adjustment to the wheat tariff was delayed by three months. In the 2014/15 marketing season South Africa imported 1 832 441 tonnes of wheat. South Africa is expected to import 1 850 000 tonnes in the 2015/16 marketing year.

Price

Over the 2014/15 season the average wheat price was R3 795/t and in 2015/16 the average wheat price increased to R4 279/t. The increase in the wheat price was a result of the weaker rand and the effect of drought on thefinal yields. In 2016 the wheat price reached a record of nearly R5 000/t.

Outlook

The long-term outlook for wheat prices points to a sideways movement in international prices as sufficient amounts of wheat are expected to be produced. Excess wheat supplies are expected to continue into the 2016/17 season, and production is expected to remain steady until 2021. In the domestic market, the previous few years have seen a declining trend in wheat-planted areas, and this trend is expected to continue if there is too little industry and government support. The lack of such support will somewhat limit the growth of wheat production in a country which is a net importer of wheat, which will increase the risk to South Africa to be food insecure. The rand to US dollar exchange rate is expected to decline moving into 2017, which will add support to future local wheat prices.

Given the declines in global wheat prices, domestic wheat prices can be expected to trade at least sideways owing to the efficient tariff measures that are in place. In South Africa the production of wheat is expected to increase while imports decline. South Africa needs to become more self-sufficient. However, to increase the local industry’s competitiveness, successful collaboration by all role players in the wheat supply chain is important. Continuous support by government for the present tariff regime is equally important to ensure the sustainability of wheat production.

  • Oilseeds

by Wessel Lemmer and Julie Hayward Wessel.Lemmer@absa.co.za

International trends

Production

Processed soybean is the largest source of the world’s animal protein feed and the second largest source of vegetable oils. The US is the main soybean producer and exporter, as soybeans comprise close to 90% of the US’s oilseed production with groundnuts, sunflower seed, canola and flax making up the balance. In South America the production of soybean is expected to be higher in the current season as a result of favourable conditions in Brazil. This led to increased yields. Flooding rains in Argentina caused quality-related problems and lower production. The gradual strengthening of the peso and real in 2016 has allowed major exporting countries such as the US to compete in Brazil’s and Argentina’s soybean market.

Trade

In the US, soybean exports are expected to increase by 9,6% to 57,8 million tonnes as a result of a larger predicted production, coupled with tightening supplies in South America. In view of a growing demand for soybean crush and  a strong global demand for protein meal, US soybean meal exports are expected to increase by 300 000 tonnes to 11,56 million tonnes. Brazilian soybean oil exports are expected to decrease by 180 000 tonnes to 1,37 million tonnes despite a higher volume of crush and a continued strong global demand for vegetable oil. EU rapeseed imports are expected to increase by 650 000 tonnes to 4 million tonnes as a result of higher productionrelated expectations. US soybean exports are also expected to increase by 2,84 million tonnes to 57 million tonnes. China’s groundnut imports are expected to increase by 32,5% to 400 000 tonnes, resulting from a growing demand for food  and crush-quality groundnuts. China’s growing demand for premium oils has left palm oil imports in China decreasing by 100 000 tonnes to 5,7 million tonnes. Sunflower oil imports into China are expected to increase by 100 000 tonnes to 650 000 tonnes as a result of developments in the current marketing year and the growing demand for premium oils. The EU’s rapeseed imports are expected to increase by 200 000 tonnes to 2,5 million tonnes as a result of anticipated declines in domestic production.

On the other hand, the EU’s sunflower seed meal and oil output is anticipated to increase by 100 000 tonnes to 3,8 million and 1,3 million tonnes respectively, following lower rapeseed crushings and lower oil and meal output. Ukraine’s soybean exports are expected to decline by 200 000 tonnes to 2,6 million tonnes due to lower domestic production.

Prices

Since 2015 soybean prices have been increasing. At the end of 2016, US freeon- board soybean prices strengthened to $412/5 in November 2016. The increase in oilseed prices was mainly due to increased exports in the soybean market and the low stock of vegetable oils and an increased demand.

Domestic trends

Production

The vegetable oilseeds market is also referred to as the oilseeds complex, which includes oilseed crops and products used for human consumption and in the animal feed industry. The products of these crops can be substituted with one another when optimising animal feed rations. This will ensure that feed costs to producers of animals are minimised, as well as the cost of animal products focusing on specific consumer market segments. The South African oilseeds complex includes locally produced primary crops, as well as crushed or processed products, for example, oilcake, pellets,meals, full-fat products and vegetable oils. The complex also includes imported vegetable oilseeds. Vegetable oilseeds are major oilseeds that include imported or locally produced soybean, sunflower seed, groundnuts and cottonseed. Canola or rapeseed is rarely imported. South Africa mainly produces canola locally. Minor and lesser-known oilseeds may include castor seed and linseed. The structure of the oilseeds industry is changing and the following fundamental factors may shape the future outcome of this promising industry. This includes:

  • the recent expansion in crushing capacity;
  • the efficiency of the industry in producing quality products;
  • the competitiveness of oilseed crop production to win additional hectares from other crops;
  • price competitiveness of the domestic industry to compete with imported oilseeds and oilseed products; and
  • African neighbours: the expansion of oilseed production, crushing capacity and exports to South Africa, coupled with improvements to crops and the development of cultivation practices. As a result of the drought conditions in the 2015/16 season, soybean plantings were lower year on year.

Sunflower seed

Over the years sunflower seed production has been declining. This is the result of maize and soybeans being the preferred crop to plant because of numerous factors such as price and improved yields resulting from improved biotechnological traits. Less expensive sunflower seed oil, oilcake and sunflower seed imports from countries such as Romania and Botswana (sunflower seed) and Argentina (sunflower seed oilcake) are a threat to the domestic industry, particularly if exporting countries in other parts of the world experience improved production conditions, thereby producing surplus stock for export purposes at competitive prices. Producers of sunflower seed planted up to 718 500 ha during the 2015/16 production season and 670 000 ha in the 2016/17 production season. If the current producers of sunflower seed manage to switch over to soybean production in traditional sunflower seed production areas and successfully produce such crops, the declining trend in sunflower seed production may be exacerbated. At a current 10-year average yield of 1,22 t/ ha only 720 000 tonnes of sunflower seed will be produced. Consequently, there is room for expanding the area under cultivation of sunflower seed with an additional 130 000 ha to meet the total demand of 880 000 tonnes.

Soybean

The national expansion in soybean production is limited by the demand for domestically produced oilcake. The quality of the domestic oilcake product needs to be equal to the quality of imported oilcake from Argentina. The latter is delivered to the animal feeds industry, which in turn supplies coastal poultry producers in particular. The demand for domestically produced oilcake and, subsequently, soybeans of a high quality, will increase as domestic crushing efficiencies and the quality of the product improves. The extent and ratio of diversification among, for example, maize, soybean and beef enterprises could also limit the extent to which producers are able to expand soybean production.

The land for increasing soybean production may be available. However, the competitiveness of other enterprises and the lack of government support necessitates diversification into extensive beef operations as a prerequisite for managing South Africa’s unique and risky production and marketing environment. This could also limit further expansion in soybean production. For instance, climatic conditions in the US allow producers in the US to run largely diversified enterprises consisting of only maize and soybeans at a 50:50 ratio of diversification. This may not be possible for producers in South Africa.

Outlook

Sunflower seed

South Africa planted at most 670 000 ha of sunflower seed and the majority of the harvested crop is crushed for use as sunflower seed oil and oilcake. The amount of sunflower seed crushed correlates with production as South Africa is a net importer of vegetable oils. The amount of sunflower seed oil imported during 2015/16 equals 36 064 tonnes and it is expected that the country will import 35 000 tonnes in the 2016/17 marketing season. South Africa needs about 880 000 tonnes of sunflower seed annually, which should provide enough scope to cultivate 720 000 hectares of sunflower seed. The lower crude oil price should not have a negative impact on the price of domestically grown sunflower seed or soybean oil. Vegetable oils in South Africa are refined for purposes of human consumption and receive a premium above vegetable oil for industrial purposes.

The rand is expected to weaken against the euro by 7% from November 2016 towards May 2017. Imports of sunflower seed oil from the EU and oilcake from Argentina may be even more expensive. The local crushing capacity for oilseeds in general has increased and crushers are expected to prefer crushing locally acquired feedstock rather than importing feedstock or products such as oil and oilcake at a high cost. Producers planning to increase production should receive a good incentive in terms of price to do so.

Soybean

South Africa planted 516 000 ha of soybean, and the vast majority of the crop will be crushed as soybean oilcake. The amount of soybean being crushed is not enough to meet the local demand for soybean oilcake. Some 124 981 tonnes of soybean were imported in 2015/16, and the country is expected to import 300 000 tonnes for the 2016/17 marketing year. South Africa needs about 1 152 212 tonnes of soybean per annum, which presents an opportunity to expand the hectares under soybean further without importing soybean. Production can be expanded even more so as to replace the imported soybean oilcake in full.

 

Source: ABSA agricultural outlook 2017

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