by Dr Dirk Strydom
Recently Agri SA published results of a drought survey which highlighted serious concerns amongst others a projected job loss of 31 000 and an estimated R7 billion in damage. The South African agricultural industry is yet again struggling with a drought which is placing enormous strain on agriculture’s financial systems.
The question, however is whether the everyday business person understand the implication of a drought? To illustrate, a small comparison between agriculture and a normal business has been drawn. Let’s start at the beginning.
Return on investment
Large capital investment is needed to start an agricultural business. Stock and machinery is expensive, a combine cost more than an Austin Martin Vantage – to offer some perspective. However, the challenge lies within the risk component. If a businessman starts a new business, a financial statement is reviewed, potential- and target markets are analysed and sales projection developed just to name a few. With all this information, a reasonable Return on Investment can be calculated. In agriculture, one can use long-term average yields, develop cash flows and enterprise budgets to calculate a Return on Investment – yet the chances of realising those fixtures are slim, due to climate dependence. The truth is, over and above the start-up funds, an average grain farmer needs to finance R14 million in order to produce his commodity – every season – without knowing what the outcome is going to be. Thus, everything can be planned, prepared with pinpoint accuracy and according to the book, but if it does not rain, there will limited or absolutely no sales.
In the business environment, following a month of below-normal or bad sales, the business can regroup and implement new plans. Generally, in the form of increased marketing spending, cost cutting measures, carrying less stock or launching specials to increase sales and move towards break even. In industries such as grain production, the businessman only has one opportunity in a production year! If that opportunity did not realise they are left with very little room for new plans. Thus, there is only one opportunity within a year to obtain an income. Yes, grain producers do diversify, however if the enterprise comprise a combination of livestock and grain – a drought effects both divisions. In fact, the cost of feeding livestock skyrockets especially when natural grazing has been depleted due to the drought.
Grain producers can experience two types of drought. Firstly, sufficient rain was received for the producer to plant, however later in the season follow-up rain did not realise. This will result in producers obtaining a yield – albeit below average – and a partial income. Then there is a drought similar to this season where, due to a lack of rain, producers struggled to plant and in several areas, could not plant at all! No crop will realise and no income for the producer for the rest of the year. Compare this scenario to a business enterprise not having clients for a year, resulting in zero sales. In spite of this, costs still have to be covered. Fixed costs, repayment on equipment, labour costs, insurance costs, electricity, just to name a few – easily adding up to 30% of total costs.
Price and the economy
Commodity prices are mainly determined by an international market. The international market currently has high stock levels resulting in low prices. Current prices can be compared to similar levels dating back 10 years. Thus, output prices did not follow normal inflation, and input costs on the contrary increased occasionally with more than inflation. In order to survive, grain producers are required to operate in a constant state of super efficiency and optimisation. A drought does nothing to assist in this instance. In a business enterprise, prices can be increase with to test market absorption of these increases, which can at times provide a solution. I, for one, cannot name a lot of products that remained on the same price levels dating back to 2009.
The last few years was a real agricultural rollercoaster with three out five years being dry. As a result, all reserves and various credit methods are now depleted. Typically, one would say that a producer can produce himself out of trouble in the next few seasons, however this suggest higher supplies and lower prices (10-year low prices). Given the low international prices – it is extremely difficult to recover from a drought!
Keep in mind that agriculture play a critical role in the economy, more specifically within the inflation figures. If food inflation increases, it can influence overall inflation, up to the point where if severe enough, can even affect the homeowner by means on increased interest rates. Over and above regular food prices and food security, agriculture can also have an effect on the economy. This is clearly seen in rural areas, where the multiplier effect is estimated at 4:1, denoting a decrease of R1 in agriculture causes a R4 decrease in the rural economy.
In reviewing the South African economy, if there is a problem with an industry which affects the public, a bail out guarantee is offered towards that entity. A few of these come to mind, most notably South African Airways and Eskom – with very limited results. Agriculture now needs help, and I am confident that agriculture can recuperate – there is historical evidence to prove this. Agriculture is in high need of support to survive this bad season and stay in production.
In reviewing all of the above mentioned, it is evident that agriculture is a risky business – and not for the faint hearted. How do these producers survive? They survive because they are among the best in the world, have an undying passion for what they do, and above all, they have faith. These producers need a boost in order to assist the entire economy.
Issued by: Grain SA Communications